By Kyle Tetting
The pandemic shows shortcomings in those tidy calendar-year earnings and market forecasts, especially how expectations for the year can shift quickly as major events develop. Also, the calendar focus on near-term outlook can hide longer-term views, including well-founded optimism for stocks. Though the exact timing of a recovery remains elusive, the broader expectation provides continued support for stocks, led by earnings.
By Kyle Tetting
A month into 2021, I haven’t been able to escape the most pressing question of 2020: How did markets post such strong returns in the midst of such terrible news?
To begin to understand, consider snow days.
By Kyle Tetting
What strikes me most from year to year is just how wrong prognostications tend to be when it comes to specifics.
We need only look to forecasts made a year ago to see just how far off the mark they were.
By Kyle Tetting
November has given us much to be thankful for. Though the exponential growth of positive coronavirus cases continues to weigh, news from Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca may finally be showing us the light at the end of the tunnel. While stocks had shown strength on the hope of this news, November brought more concrete signs that economic growth may follow a successful vaccine.
By Kyle Tetting
Economists at Yale University’s decades-long confidence surveys ask investors what they believe the probability is of a “catastrophic stock market crash in the U.S. in the next six months.” Individual investors were as pessimistic as ever in August, according to survey data. The most recent report shows little improvement. […]
Landaas & Company is delivering its annual client investment seminar online, with Bob Landaas and other investment advisors explaining global market trends and considerations for long-term investors.
By Kyle Tetting
Daily updates on the pandemic and resulting economic calamity can take us away from the core of why we invest. […]
By Kyle Tetting
August ended the briefest bear market in history. An especially technical term with multiple methods of measurement, the end of a bear market is a sign that investors have begun to look ahead and move beyond the root causes of earlier market declines. Despite some optimism, though, there is plenty of uncertainty, which can both test investors’ resolve and offer opportunity.
By Kyle Tetting
At the halfway point, 2020 has been a disappointing year for investors. “Disappointing” might not be strong enough to describe the economy or many other measures of the year so far, but for investors, it’s fitting—with a little perspective.
By Kyle Tetting
How the stock market is supposed to work in the short run is traders weigh the positive and negative headlines and step on the gas or pump the brakes accordingly. As the divergence between positive and negative headlines narrows along with the range of our expectations for the future, the fits and starts of a recovery begin to smooth.
By Kyle Tetting
Ongoing fears about the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19 have halted many of our favorite pastimes, but even as case counts continue to grow, we’re preparing for what comes next. By May 1, we saw an increasing number of states begin to outline plans to reopen. A small number had already removed restrictions.
The stock market had responded favorably to such developments, coupled with additional government support for small businesses and individuals. Of course, stocks are typically a poor representation of the current condition. And, with plenty of uncertainty about the future, it makes sense to put the latest rally in perspective.
By Kyle Tetting and Joel Dresang
It’s fair to say that March 2020 marked the end of the longest bull market in history, begun in March 2009. On March 12, the closing price on the S&P 500 fell more than 20% below its Feb. 19 peak, marking the beginning of the first bear market in 11 years. Technically, the beginnings and ends, depths and breadths of bear and bull markets vary by what precisely analysts measure. There’s devilish disagreement in the details. […]