Category: Economy

  • Recession’s not over till the NBER sings

    Economists involved in business cycle information are painstaking when pronouncing the end of a recession. Over the past five downturns, they averaged 15 months between when the recession was over and when they said so. On three of those occasions — 1980, 1991 and 2001, the lag between the turning point and the bureau’s declaration…

  • Economy keeps counting on consumers

    Much of the optimism for the U.S. economy is the health of consumers. […]

  • Leaning into the curve

    The Fed notes, “every recession since 1957 has been preceded by a yield curve inversion.” But there is more to consider.