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Advisors on This Week’s Show
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (July 21-25, 2025)
Significant economic indicators & reports
Monday
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators slipped 0.3% in June. The gauge from the business research group fell 2.8% in the first half of 2025, declining from a drop of 1.3% in the second half of 2024. The report said even the stock market rally couldn’t offset weaker conditions led by lower consumer expectations, fewer factory orders and rising jobless claims. A warning sign of recession flashed for the third month in a row, but the group said it’s still not forecasting a downturn. It projected a 1.6% increase in GDP for 2025, based on slower consumer spending because of expected higher prices from tariffs. The U.S. economy grew by 2.8% in 2024.
Tuesday
No major releases
Wednesday
The National Association of Realtors reported continued declines in existing home sales in June, lagging the sales pace of 2024, which was the lowest since 1995. The trade group said the annual rate of sales slipped 2.7% from May to 3.9 million houses. The group cited insufficient inventory as an ongoing challenge, while new construction hasn’t kept up with population growth. It blamed mortgage rates for dampening demand. The imbalance between supply and demand resulted in the 24th consecutive increase in median sales price, up 2% from the year before to a record $435,300.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fifth week in a row to the lowest level since mid-April. Data from the Labor Department showed the moving average 38% below the 58-year average. It was up 8% from just before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the latest week, more than 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, up 5.9% from the week before and up 3.5% from the same time last year.
The annual rate of new home sales rose slightly in June, hovering in the lower end of a narrow range that has prevailed since mid-2023. The pace was 11% below the level heading into the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago. The Commerce Department reported that the inventory of unsold new houses rose to the highest rate since October 2020. The median price of new houses was $401,800, 2.9% lower than in June 2024, the fifth time in six months the price declined from the year before.
Friday
Manufacturing demand fell in June for the second time in three months, with durable goods orders plummeting 9.3% from May, largely because of a steep declined in orders for commercial aircraft. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.2%. Compared to June 2024, total orders were up 7.9% – again because of pricey aircraft sales – but rose 1.6% excluding transportation. The Commerce Department reported that core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, fell 0.7% from May and increased 2.1% from June 2024.
Market Closings for the Week
- Nasdaq – 21108, up 522 points or 2.5%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6389, up 129 points or 2.1%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 44902, up 530 points or 1.2%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.39%, down 0.03 point