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Advisors on This Week’s Show
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (April 21-25, 2025)
Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators declined 0.7% in March, amid sinking consumer confidence, stock prices and factory orders. The business research group said six-month movement of its index contracted at a slower pace – 1.6%, compared to a 2.3% six-month decline in February. The March indicators, which preceded U.S. tariff announcements, did not signal a recession, the Conference Board said. But it further lowered its economic forecast, projecting a 1.6% rise in GDP in 2025, down from 2% last month and 2.5% in February. The conference board blamed trade wars, “which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.”
Tuesday
No major releases
Wednesday
The Commerce Department said the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales rose 7.4% in March to 724,000 houses, the fastest pace since September. The rate was up 6% from the year before and on par with the level heading into the COVID-19 pandemic, which was nearly the highest since just before the Great Recession. The median sales price dipped 7.5% from March 2024 to $403,600. Houses sold were on the market for a median 3.1 months, the longest in three years.
Thursday
Contracts for commercial aircraft led a surge in manufacturing demand in March, with durable goods orders rising 9.2% from February, the third consecutive increase, according to the Commerce Department. Orders for automotive vehicles and parts also gained, but excluding volatile transportation equipment, durable goods demand was unchanged for the month. Since March 2024, all orders rose 5.5%; they were up 0.9% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, advanced 0.1% in March and were up 1% from March 2024.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in a row and the fourth time in five weeks. The average was 39% lower than the 58-year average, according to Labor Department data, reflecting employer reluctance to let workers go. In the latest week, just under 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down 0.2% from the week before and up 5.3% from the same time last year.
The National Association of Realtors reported a nearly 6% drop in existing home sales in March, as the annual rate reached 4 million residences. That was 2% lower than the year before and follows full-year declines in 2023 and 2024, the weakest sales in three decades. The trade association cited “affordability challenges” related to mortgage rates as well as historically low mobility. The median sale price in March was a record high $403,700, up 2% from the year before and the 21st consecutive gain. Housing inventory grew in March but remained below traditional measures of a sustainable supply.
Friday
The University of Michigan reported continued severe decline in consumer sentiment in April, dropping for the fourth month in a row. Broad expectations plummeted 32% from January, the largest three-month fall since the recession of 1990. Uncertainty over trade policies raised consumer forecasts for inflation to 6.5% – the highest since 1981, when actual inflation reached 11%. Expectations included a “bleak” job outlook and “weaker” prospects for income growth in the coming year. Economists watch sentiment as a harbinger of consumer spending, which drives about 70% of the economy.
Market Closings for the Week
- Nasdaq – 17383, up 1,096 points or 6.7%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5525, up 243 points or 4.6%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 40114, up 971 points or 2.5%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.27%, down 0.07 point