Information sources for 2022 Investment Outlook Seminar video
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- S&P 500 Returns: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/06/13/dow-plunges-nearly-700-points-sp-500-enters-bear-market-territory-as-inflation-fears-roil-markets/?sh=29630b2e7b65
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2022
- Value vs. Growth: https://indexcalculator.ftserussell.com/icstep1.aspx
- 2018 and 2019 S&P 500 Returns: https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_total_return_annual
- November Fed Statements about inflation and rates: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20211103.htm
- June inflation vs. PCE from Second Quarter GDP: https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-prices-up-9-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-june-2022-largest-increase-in-40-years.htm
- Fed to Lower rates next summer: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1106505/why-we-expect-the-fed-to-cut-interest-rates-in-2023
- Average Bear Market Length (23M): https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/ Jpm Guide to the markets, slide # 17
- January 3rd S&P 500 peak: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/sp-500-dow-hit-record-highs-1st-trading-day-2022-2022-01-03/
- Durable Goods Demand up 18% from Pre-Pandemic Levels: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDE
- Shift to services and Travel spending: https://www.ustravel.org/research/monthly-travel-data-report
- Jay Powell Pain Comments at Jackson Hole: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm
- Consumer Spending: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UhIe
- Energy Stocks Earnings Carrying the S&P 500: https://insight.factset.com/ex-energy-sp-500-reporting-a-year-over-year-decline-in-earnings-of-4-for-q2#:~:text=The%20Energy%20sector%20is%20also,in%20earnings%20of%20%2431.1%20billion.
- 2023 Earnings Growth (8%): xlsx (refinitiv.com)
- Long-Term average stock returns (real appx. 7% per year 200 years): Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, Table 5-1
- Forward P/E on 8% 2023 earnings vs. LT average: https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-forward-p/e-ratio-falls-below-10-year-average-for-the-first-time-since-q2-2020
- Corporate Bond Fund Yields (3.6%): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAAA
- 70% of our economy is consumer spending: https://www.thebalancemoney.com/components-of-gdp-explanation-formula-and-chart-3306015
- Dollar Strength: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/sterling-hits-record-low-against-the-dollar-as-other-asia-pacific-currencies-weaken.html
- Gas prices falling 60 days in a row: https://vermontbiz.com/news/2022/september/01/gas-prices-fall-going-labor-day-down-nearly-1-independence-day
- Oil prices skyrocketed in February: https://www.statista.com/statistics/326017/weekly-crude-oil-prices/
- 2024 Earnings Forecasts: xlsx (refinitiv.com)
- Chinese apartments uncompleted: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-62436926
- China GDP slowing: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/26/east-asia-and-pacific-sustaining-growth-restraining-inflation-but-facing-risks-ahead#:~:text=China%2C%20which%20previously%20led%20recovery,next%20year%2C%20the%20report%20says.
- Women in the workplace: https://www.prb.org/resources/record-number-of-women-in-the-u-s-labor-force/#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20about%2043%20percent,78%20percent%20to%2074%20percent.
- King Charles Nanotechnology: https://www.yahoo.com/video/king-charles-iii-hailed-possibly-160210411.html
- Historical perspective of bear markets: https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html
- Fed Dual Mandate: The Federal Reserve’s Dual Mandate – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (chicagofed.org)
- Historical performance of value and growth stocks: https://www.wellington.com/en/insights/value-vs-growth-stocks-regime-change
(initially posted Sept. 29, 2022)
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