2021 Investment Outlook Seminar references
Information sources for 2021 Investment Outlook Seminar video
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- 22 million jobs lost (22 million) early in the COVID-19 pandemic, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- inflation below 2% for years, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- sawmills shut down, article in Los Angeles Times
- lumber prices rose, data tracked by Trading Economics
- Used car prices up 10% a month in spring, article in Business Insider
- 10-year Treasury yield reached 1.74% on March 19 and 1.19% on July 19, U.S. Department of the Treasury
- Gross domestic product averaging roughly 2% for the last 10 years, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Trends and averages for price/earnings ratio, forward P/Es, Yardeni Research Inc.
- Low interest rates support higher multiples, Bloomberg, via Columbia Management Investment Distributors Inc.
- Forward P/Es for growth stocks, large-cap growth, value and large-cap value, Yardeni Research Inc.
- Earnings projections for S&P 500 index, Revinitiv
- Federal Reserve buying $120 billion worth of bonds every month, Wall Street Journal article
- 10% sell-off of stocks every 18 months to 24 months, Yardeni Research Inc.
- Five stocks account for 25% of the value of the S&P 500 while also representing about 25% of the earnings of the broader market, article in Barron’s.
- Up to a third of the stocks in the S&P 500 face disruptions to their business, article in IMD (International Institute of Management Development)
- The spread between junk and high-quality bonds of similar durations, are narrower than their long-term average of roughly 5%, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Since 1980, there have been about 37 stock market corrections, averaging declines of about 13%, Yardeni Research Inc.
- If a trust is the primary beneficiary of a retirement accounts, it could lose its tax deferred status, Investopedia
(initially posted September 30, 2021)
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