Advisors on This Week’s Show

Bob Landaas

Marc Amateis

Jeff Peterson

Steve Giles

Week in Review (May 14-18, 2012)

Significant economic indicators & reports

Monday

No major releases

Tuesday

The broadest measure of inflation showed no change in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. A dip in gasoline prices helped keep the Consumer Price Index from rising and led to a 2.3% annual inflation rate, the lowest in 14 months. The less volatile core index, which takes out fuel and food costs, also had a 12-month rate of 2.3%, which is below the 30-year average rate of 3.1%.

A key measure of consumer spending – retail sales – rose slightly in April after a stronger gain in March. The Commerce Department reported nine of 13 categories with greater sales in April, led by automotive. Year-to-year retail sales grew by 6.4%, the lowest rate since August 2010. The 20-year average rate is 4.5%.

Businesses added less to their inventories in March than analysts had expected, but Commerce Department figures showed stockpiles keeping pace with demand as the inventories-to-sales ratio remained near historic lows. That suggests extended caution by business executives but positions them to respond quickly to changes in demand.

Wednesday

The beleaguered housing sector had an encouraging sign with housing starts rising more than forecast in April. The annual pace of new construction increased nearly 3% from March and was up 30% from April 2011, according to a joint report from Commerce and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. While the development is positive, the pace for housing starts is only about two-thirds what it was before the recession and less than half the average since 1959.

The Federal Reserve reported better-than-expected industrial production and capacity usage in April. Boosted by a rebound in utilities after a mild winter, industrial production rose at the fastest pace in 16 months. Industries overall were operating at their highest capacity in four years. Both indicators suggest continued moderate expansion of the economy.

Thursday

The moving four-week average for initial unemployment claims declined for the second week in a row, signaling more gradual progress for the longsuffering labor market. Labor Department data showed jobless claims down 14% from the year before, the widest such gap since August. New claims below 400,000 a week suggest employers overall are adding more jobs than they’re cutting. The level has been below that number for 29 weeks in a row.

The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators dipped unexpectedly in April, largely from a combination of trends in unemployment claims, building permits and consumer confidence. An economist for the business research group said: “The indicators reflect an economy that’s still struggling to gain momentum. Growth is slow, but choppy, and consumers, executives and investors are looking for more progress.”

Friday

No major releases

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Advisors on This Week’s Show

Brian Kilb

Marc Amateis

Jeff Peterson

Week in Review (May 7-11, 2012)

Significant economic indicators & reports

Monday

The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit grew in March, and it was much greater than analysts had expected. The debt expansion continues to be concentrated in non-revolving debt such as car financing and – the biggest factor – student loans. A surge in college borrowing has come as some interest rates are about to double, pending action from Congress. Credit card debt, which is a sign of consumer confidence, rose for the first time in three months.

Tuesday

No major releases

Wednesday

March also experienced the lowest increase in wholesale inventories in four months, another indication of slowing economic momentum. According to the Commerce Department, the ratio of wholesale inventories to sales remained near historic lows, suggesting companies continue to run lean and cautious. The year-to-year build of inventories dipped to 8.4%, its lowest mark since November 2010, but that’s up from a 20-year average rate of 4.5%.

Thursday

The U.S. trade deficit widened in March as imports grew faster than exports. While analysts had expected the Bureau of Economic Analysis to show a gap narrower than the $51.8 billion reported, they also saw encouraging signs of consumerism. Americans bought more foreign-made computers, cell phones, cars, clothes and TVs. Exports also increased, allaying some fears of how a slowdown in global growth might affect U.S. companies.

Labor market conditions showed signs of revival as the moving four-week average for initial unemployment claims dipped for the first time since March and only the third time since February. Labor Department data showed jobless claims still around the levels they were four years ago. Average claims are more than 40% lower than their recessionary peak and have been below the critical level of 400,000 for more than six months.

Friday
Led by lower gasoline prices, wholesale inflation fell in April for the first time in four months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the year-to-year rate in the Producer Price Index dipped to 1.9%, the slightest since October 2009. Similarly, the core index, which excludes volatile food and fuel costs, nudged down to a 2.7% annual rate, the lowest since August. The data support Federal Reserve statements that inflation isn’t an imminent threat and suggest a decrease in the Consumer Price Index, which will be reported next week.

An early reading of May consumer sentiment showed the greatest optimism since before the Great Recession started at the end of 2007. The preliminary gauging by the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters found especially strong feelings for current conditions, although consumers’ expectations for the future – which tend to affect spending plans – remained relatively weak.

Where the Markets Closed for the Week

• Nasdaq – 2,934, down 22 points or 0.7%
• Standard & Poor’s 500 – 1,353, down 16 points or 1.2%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.84%, down 0.04 point
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 12,821, down 217  points or 1.7%

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Advisors on This Week’s Show

Bob Landaas

Brian Kilb

Paul Coldagelli

Week in Review (April 30-May 4, 2012)

Significant economic indicators & reports

Monday

The driver of 70% of U.S. economic activity, consumer spending rose a little less than expected in March but followed a strong February and remained at a reasonable pace. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal income rose more than analysts had forecast. The same report showed a key inflation measure – the core Personal Consumption Expenditure index, rising at a 2% annual rate for the fourth month in a row. That’s about where monetary policy officials at the Federal Reserve have said they’d like inflation to be at this point.

Tuesday

Manufacturing appeared to pep up in April after slowing its advance in recent months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, hit its highest level in 10 months, much better than experts had expected.

Also beating expectations, motor vehicle sales rose slightly in April, at an annual rate of 14.4 million vehicles. Figures from Autodata Corp. show that next to February, vehicles sales climbed to their highest point in four years.

Wednesday

Echoing some other reports suggesting a recent slowdown in manufacturing demand, the Commerce Department said factory orders declined in March for the second time in three months. The monthly report is considered a volatile economic indicator but showed broad declines beyond a drop in commercial airline orders. The ISM Manufacturing Index for April offers hope, however, that orders since have improved.

Thursday

Labor market conditions are still sorting out, according to the moving four-week average for initial unemployment claims, which rose for the fourth week in a row. Labor Department data showed jobless claims at their highest level since December while still 42% lower than the bleakest point of the recession. Claims have been below the critical level of 400,000 for 27 weeks in a row.

The ISM non-manufacturing index disappointed analysts by dropping more than expected in March, the second decline in as many months. But it still suggested continued expansion for the 28^th month in a row with none of the categories in the index showing contraction.

Productivity fell in the first quarter as labor output dipped even as hours increased, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists said lower productivity could signal that employers can’t squeeze any more work out of their staff and need to hire more. The same report showed labor costs dropping, meaning inflation still isn’t much of a near-term concern.

Friday

The April employment report showed fewer jobs created than expected with barely a budge in hours worked or wages earned. Employers added 115,000 jobs in April, less than half the three-month average, raising questions about the sustainability of America’s modest pace of economic growth. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.1%, the lowest since January 2009, but much of that reflected Americans dropping out of the job market. Positive signs included statistical revisions showing 53,000 more jobs than previously estimated in February and March, as well as a rebound in temporary hires, which tends to portend increases in permanent positions.

Where the Markets Closed for the Week

• Nasdaq – 2,956, down 113 points or 3.7%
• Standard & Poor’s 500 – 1,369, down 35 points or 2.5%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.88%, down 0.06 point
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 13,038, down 196 points or 1.5%

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Advisors on This Week’s Show

Bob Landaas

Brian Kilb

Marc Amateis

(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang)

Week in Review (April 23-27, 2012)

Significant economic indicators & reports

Monday

No significant releases

Tuesday

With perhaps nowhere left to go but up, home prices narrowed their year-to-year losses in February but remained below year-earlier figures for the 17^th month in a row, according to the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Of the 20 cities, 15 had slighter 12-month losses than in January. The overall index narrowed for the second month in a row.

Another measure of the beleaguered housing industry, new-home sales, dipped 7% in March, which was stronger than analysts had expected. Revised data from the Commerce Department and the Department of Housing and Urban Development showed February sales to be the highest since the homebuyer tax credit stimulus in 2010. Even so, the annual sales rate is about half the average rate since 1963.

Consumer confidence edged down slightly in April for the second month in a row. While opinions continued to warm to current conditions, the outlook took a setback, the Conference Board reported. Only 14% of those surveyed expected income gains in the next six months, down from 15.5% in March.

Wednesday

Year-to-year gains in orders for durable goods stayed above average in March, but the monthly figures declined for the second time in three months. Orders slowed broadly across industries, led by the volatile commercial aircraft category, according to the Commerce Department. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft (an indicator of business investment) fell slightly from February, when orders had been more robust than previously reported.

Thursday

As a reminder that labor market conditions are still sorting out, the moving four-week average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row. Labor Department data showed jobless claims 42% lower than the height of the recession and below the critical level of 400,000 claims for the 26^th week in a row.

The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index gained 4.1% in March, up from a stronger February than previously reported. The housing market has clearly turned the corner,” an economist for the trade association said. Inventory has fallen with rising sales, which should help stabilize prices.

Friday

The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.2%, slower than expected in the first quarter, according to the first of three estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. By comparison, the Gross Domestic Product advanced 3% in the fourth quarter, which was the only higher rate in 2011. Better-than-expected consumer spending led the first-quarter growth with assistance from auto manufacturing and homebuilding. Government spending continued to decline. A key measure of inflation remained within the comfort zone set by the Federal Reserve, which is watching for the point at which low interest rates spark higher prices.

April consumer sentiment advanced slightly from March as Americans continued be feel lackluster toward current conditions but grudgingly more optimistic about future prospects. The report from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters news service suggested that much of consumers’ outlook is based on the anticipation of more jobs and lower gas prices.

Where the Markets Closed for the Week

Nasdaq – 3,069  up 68 points or 2.3%

Standard & Poor’s 500 – 1,404, up 25 points or 1.8%

10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.94%, down 0.03 point

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 13,234, up 204 points or 1.6%

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Advisors on This Week’s Show

Bob Landaas

Brian Kilb

Art Rothschild

Week in Review (April 16-20, 2012)

Significant economic indicators & reports

Monday

A key indicator of consumer spending, which makes up 70% of the Gross Domestic Product, is retail sales, which rose more than analysts expected in March. The gain followed a bigger increase than previously reported in February. According to the Commerce Department, more money from car and gasoline sales helped fuel the latest rise in retailing. Year-to-year, sales were up 6.5%, vs. 6.4% the previous two months and an average of 4.5% since 1993.

Tuesday

One snag in the economic recovery has been the housing industry, which started construction of fewer structures in March. Commerce and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that multiple-family dwellings led the downturn, which may be part of a settling back after early warm weather had increased activity. On the other hand, building permits, a leading indicator of future housing plans, shot up more than expected.

Factories, mines and utilities together showed no significant increase in industrial production in March, despite continued strength from the auto industry. The Federal Reserve said factory output was down slightly after a slower February than initially reported. Still, the first three months of 2012 showed a 10.4% annualized gain in manufacturing output, the highest since the second quarter of 2010. Industries were using 78.6% of their collective capacity, about the same as the previous two months but down from the 40-year average of 80.3%. That suggests there’s room to expand production without threatening inflation.

Wednesday

No significant releases

Thursday

In another possible weather-related adjustment, the moving four-week average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row – to the highest level since January. Still, data from the Labor Department show jobless claims hovering around four-year lows. They have been below the critical 400,000 mark for the 25^th week in a row.

The annual sales rate for existing houses dropped for the third time in four months in March but remained above year-earlier rates for the ninth month in a row. An economist for the National Association of Realtors said to expect “notably better” sales in 2012 because of pent-up demand, low mortgage rates, depressed prices and a moderately improving economy.

The U.S. should keep growing gradually at least into the fall, according to the Conference Board. Its index of leading economic indicators rose more than analysts expected in March, advancing for the sixth month in a row. Broad gains across a variety of indicators suggest continued growth at a pace that’s both moderate and sustainable.

Friday

No significant releases

Where the Markets Closed for the Week

• Nasdaq – 3,000, down 11 points or 0.4%
• Standard & Poor’s 500 – 1,379, up 9 points or 0.7%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.97%, down 0.03 point
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 13,030, up 180 points or 1.4%

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Advisors on This Week’s Show

Bob Landaas

Marc Amateis

Paul Coldagelli

Jeff Peterson

Advisors on This Week’s Show

Bob Landaas

Brian Kilb

March Amateis

Week in Review (April 2-6, 2012)

Significant economic indicators & reports

Monday

In a reminder that the housing sector is still mostly bouncing along the bottom, the Commerce Department said construction spending dipped in February. Declines were widespread except in the area of multifamily residential building. The annual rate of construction spending was up nearly 6% from the same time in 2011 but down more than 30% from its peak pace six years ago.

Manufacturing continued as the workhorse of the recovery in March with the Institute for Supply Management marking the 34^th consecutive month of expansion for the sector. New orders, back orders, production and employment components of the group’s index all showed further signs of growth, although new orders and exports rose at a slower rate.  

Tuesday

For the third time in four months, factory orders rose in February. Although not as robust as analysts had expected, the increase reported by the Commerce Department suggests continued growth in the U.S. economy through manufacturing. Record-high inventories remained low compared to shipments, indicating manufacturers are keeping their businesses lean. New orders rose nearly 11% in the last 12 months broadly spread among categories, led by primary metals, transportation equipment and machinery.

Auto manufacturers said they sold an annual rate of 14.4 million vehicles nationwide in March, about 5% lower than the 12-month high rate they hit in February. Year-to-year, the rate improved by 10% since March 2011, according to the trade group Auto Data Corp. The latest month showed a smaller dip in car sales than truck sales, which lessens the impact of the slowdown in dollar terms because trucks tend to cost more.

Wednesday

As much as manufacturing has been boosting economic activity, the service sector still represents about 90% of the economy. The ISM non-manufacturing index showed that sector continuing to expand in March, though at a slower pace than February, which was the strongest in a year. The non-manufacturing index indicated expansion for the 27^th month in a row. Positive signs included faster growth for employment and inventories.

Thursday

The moving four-week average for initial unemployment claims dipped to the lowest point since May 2008, further signaling employers’ reluctance to let workers go. Based on recently revised numbers from the Labor Department, the moving average dipped below the 45-year average rate while extending its duration under the 400,000 level for the 23^rd week in a row.

Friday

Despite signs of progress in the nation’s employment picture, the March report on payroll jobs and unemployment suggested that work remains. Employers added 120,000 positions since February, the lowest monthly total since October and about half of the average from the previous three months. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.2%, the lowest since early 2009, but it’s a misleading indicator because it fails to count the 2.4 million workers who would like to be working but aren’t currently applying for jobs. Temporary help positions, considered a harbinger of future hiring, declined for the first time in nine months but showed an upward trend longer term.

Where the Markets Closed for the Week

• Nasdaq – 3,081,  down 12 points or 0.4%
• Standard & Poor’s 500 – 1,398, down 10 points or 0.7%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.18%, down 0.05 point
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 13,060, down 152 points or 1.1%

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Advisors on This Week’s Show

Brian Kilb

Jeff Peterson

Steve Giles

Week in Review (March 26-30, 2012)

Significant economic indicators & reports

Monday

Following the best month since the 2010 stimulus credit, pending homes sales dropped a smidge in February. Although agents have been reporting more incidents of sales not closing, the National Association of Realtors said the first two months of transactions suggest 2012 sales gains ranging from 7% to 10%. That would be the best year for residential real estate since 2007. At this time last year, the Realtors projected an 8% rise in 2011 pending sales, which ended up 0.7%.

Tuesday

In a possible sign that housing’s slide may be starting to stabilize, the decline in home prices let up a little in January, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Of 19 cities in the composite measure, 16 had lower home prices in January than the year before. The total index showed year-to-year price drops for the 16^th month in a row. However, the 4.1% decline in December eased to 3.8% in January. Overall, prices sank back to 2002 levels.

Feelings toward current economic conditions rose to their highest point in three and a half years in March, although consumer confidence generally dipped marginally from February’s 12 month high. The Conference Board blamed a less optimistic near-term outlook for the setback. At the same time, more consumers are expressing plans to buy houses, cars and appliances.

Wednesday

A measure of manufacturing strength, durable goods orders, rose less than analysts expected in February but continued to signal momentum from a key driver in the economic recovery. Orders for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft climbed more than 12% from February 2011. That was the largest year-to-year gain in nine months for such orders, which indicate business investments.

Thursday

Employers continued hanging on to workers for the most part as the moving four-week average for initial unemployment claims declined for the first time in four weeks and stayed at a four-year low level. The Labor Department released revised data dating back to 2007 showing average claims below the 400,000 level for the 22^nd week in a row.

The U.S. economy grew at a 3% annual rate in the last three months of 2011, up from 1.8% in the third quarter and the fastest pace since mid-2010. In its third estimate of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said the rate of consumer spending gained for the third quarter in a row while business investments and profit growth slowed down. Government spending declined for the fifth consecutive quarter.

Friday

American consumers spent faster than their income grew in February. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal income rose at a rate of 0.2% from January, one-fourth the rate of gain for personal spending. That’s mixed news. Although consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic activity, personal finances can be affected when income doesn’t keep pace. The personal saving rate dipped to 3.7% of disposable income, the lowest in more than four years. The same report showed the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator staying just below the 2% level for the third month in a row.

Business activity slowed a bit from a 10-month high in February, according to the Chicago purchasing managers index, but overall measures remained elevated for the fifth month in a row indicating the 30^th consecutive month of economic expansion. Of eight components in the index, five advanced from February, including production, which reached its highest mark since last April.

Increases in employment and stock prices overcame rising gas prices to help boost consumer sentiment in March. The longstanding index from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters showed sentiment gaining for the seventh month in a row. Households and individuals surveyed said they feel better about jobs and finances than they have in years. However, they still remain cautious in their outlook.

Where the Markets Closed for the Week

Nasdaq – 3,092, up 24 points or 0.8%

Standard & Poor’s 500 – 1,408, up 11 points or 0.8%

10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.22%, down 0.02 point

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 13,212, up 130 points or 1.0%

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Advisors on This Week’s Show

Brian Kilb

Jeff Peterson

Steve Giles

Week in Review (March 19-23, 2012)

Significant economic indicators & reports

Monday

No major announcements

Tuesday

The housing news that dominated economic reports this week began with word from the Commerce Department that new housing construction dipped in February while permits authorized for future construction rose. The housing starts were at an annual rate just slightly below what analysts had forecast and followed upward revisions to January which made it the fastest pace since in more than three years. Multi-family units continued to outpace single-family starts and permits. Overall, the data appeared encouraging, though unseasonable weather could be boosting activity.

Wednesday

The annual sales rate of existing houses fell in February, also after a January that was stronger than earlier the reported, the National Association of Realtors said. While the rate was 14% below the average since 1999, it was up nearly 9% from February 2011. An economist for the trade group said trends have been upward “unevenly” and that “pent-up demand could burst forth from the improving economy.” The median price for single-family houses rose slightly from the year before. Distressed residences accounted for more than a third of the February sales, attracting a lot of all-cash offers from investors.

Thursday

The moving four-week average for initial unemployment claims declined for the first time in three weeks and stayed at a four-year low level. The Labor Department reported data showing average claims below the 45-year average for the fifth week in a row as employers continued to lay off of letting workers go.

The “improving economy” remark from the Realtors got support from the Conference Board’s index for leading economic indicators, which rose in February for the fifth month in a row, reaching the highest level since July 2008 – before the financial collapse. Economists for the business research group reported broad gains despite mild consumer expectations. And though weather may have helped improve data through the winter, they say signs are consistent enough to suggest continued progress in employment, output and incomes at least into autumn.

Friday

As with used houses, newly built residences sold at a lower annual rate in February, but the Commerce Department said revisions show December sales to be the highest since the recession that ended in June 2009. Encouraging signs include the first year-to-year gain in median home price since October. Also, the supply of unsold houses on the market remained relatively low for the fourth month in a row. Still the sales rate was less than half the 20-year average – another reminder of the recovery that remains for housing.

Where the Markets Closed for the Week

Nasdaq – 3,068, up 13 points or 0.4%

Standard & Poor’s 500 – 1,397, down 7 points or 0.5%

10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.24%, down 0.06 point

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 13,082, down 151 points or 1.1%

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Advisors on This Week’s Show

Bob Landaas

Brian Kilb

March Amateis

Week in Review (March 12-16, 2012)

Significant economic indicators & reports

Monday

No major announcements

Tuesday

A chief indicator of consumer spending, retail sales, rose 1.1% in February, the biggest gain in five months. The Commerce Department reported that car sales and higher gasoline prices helped drive up what consumers spent, but most categories gained. Year-to-year sales of 6.5% remained well above the long-term average, suggesting continued confidence in the economy.

Businesses stocked shelves at a faster rate than analysts expected in January. But Commerce showed in a separate report that business inventories kept tracking pretty closely to the pace of sales, which provides steady production work for lean companies – and their employees – as they meet rising consumer demand.

Wednesday

No major announcements

Thursday

Higher gasoline prices also had an effect on inflation on the wholesale level in February. The Producer Price Index rose at its fastest clip since September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, led by energy costs and a 4.3% increase in gas prices. But food prices fell for the third month in a row, and the core rate – aside from volatile fuel and food costs – had its smallest gain in three months.

The moving four-week average for initial unemployment claims remained at a four-year low level, reflecting an extended trend away from laying off workers. The Labor Department reported average claims were 46% below the recessionary peak and under the critical 400,000 level for 18 weeks in a row.

Friday

The broadest measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index, sent mixed signals in February as gas prices pushed up the headline number to the largest one-month increase since last April. As with the wholesale prices, food costs offset some of the pressure from the gas pump. The core consumer rate actually went down on a year-to-year basis to 2.2%. That compares with a 54-year average core rate of 3.9% a year.

U.S. industrial production and utilization were little changed in February after a stronger-than-estimated January, the Federal Reserve said. Although less a factor in economic growth than consumer spending, manufacturing has led the country’s expansion out of the Great Recession. The Fed report showed continued momentum in factories with slowdowns recently in mining and utilities.

Analysts blamed higher gas prices for tamping down consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters. The latest survey suggested consumers were more afraid of inflation than they were a couple of weeks earlier. If expectations for higher prices rise faster than anticipation for pay raises, that could spook consumers away from spending.

Where the Markets Closed for the Week

• Nasdaq – 3,055, up 67 points or 2.3%
• Standard & Poor’s 500 – 1,404, up 33 points or 2.4%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.30%, up 0.27 point
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 13,233, up 308 points or 2.4%

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